There are many rumors that former Justice Minister Cho Kook will run for next year’s general elections. On the 10th, after visiting Pyeongsan Village in Yangsan, Gyeongsangnam-do안전놀이터, where former President Moon Jae-in’s home is located, he drew attention by saying, “I will go the road without roads,” and on the 13th, when I was notified of my dismissal from Seoul National University, analysis came out that the environment for running for the general election was being prepared. . Supporters say, “I have to run for the sake of restoring my honor,” and whether or not he can run is emerging as the biggest issue in next year’s general election.

Politicians are already busy calculating profit and loss. When running for office, the biggest concern is establishing a relationship with the Democratic Party of Korea, which had to endure the middle-class breakaway during the 2019 ‘Cho Kuk Crisis’. In the Democratic Party, there are already voices of concern about negative reactions in the general election, to the extent that the expression ‘the swamp of the motherland’ has already appeared following ‘the river of the motherland’. Even if you keep your distance from the Democratic Party, it remains another question of where to organize the constituency and how to organize traffic with the Democratic Party candidate in the constituency.

① A meaningful remark after visiting Pyeongsan Village

Former Minister Cho said on Facebook on the 10th, “I visited former President Moon Jae-in after a long time, served as a bookkeeper at the Pyeongsan Bookstore for a while, and then returned home after a solo drink.” Pyeongsan Bookstore is a bookstore that former President Moon has been running since last April. Former Minister Cho posted a picture taken with former President Moon in a bookstore and a picture of him tilting a glass.

At the same time, he left a meaningful message, “I will walk the road without a road.” Former President Moon, who said, “I want to be a forgotten president,” is still influential in the Democratic Party lawmakers and supporters, and the political world accepts it as suggesting the possibility of running for next year’s general elections.

Opinions are divided over whether former Minister Cho solidified his candidature. Rep. Min Hyung-bae, who worked at the Blue House of the Moon Jae-in administration with former Minister Cho, said on YTN , “I don’t think the situation is complicated and it’s not the time to make a judgment.” Rep. Choi Kang-wook also said, “He never said that he was thinking about the general election first or what to do.”

② The weight of the reader’s route… But is it separate from the Democratic Party?

Even if former Minister Cho decides to run, it is a separate issue whether he will run for the Democratic Party. Rep. Kim Eui-gyeom, who served as a spokesperson for the Blue House, said on SBS Radio, “The common opinion is that we should go out independently regardless of the Democratic Party.” However, it is unclear whether voters will separate former Minister Cho, who ran for his own, from the Democratic Party. Like the Open Democratic Party during the 21st general election, it could be a satellite party.

Regarding the Democratic Party’s failure to recreate the regime, many views view the ‘Cho Kuk Incident’ as the beginning. If former Minister Cho runs for ‘restoration of honor’, it is highly likely that the Democratic Party will be further away from ‘recovery of the middle class’, which is a prerequisite for winning the general election. In addition, it may be a factor that blurs the frame of the Democratic Party’s ‘regime judgment’ in the general election next year. This is why the passport welcomes former Minister Cho’s candidacy.

② What district is Seoul? Busan?… the metropolitan area is already concerned

In the area where he can run, rumors are continuing. The places most likely to be mentioned are ‘Seoul Gwanak-gap’, the residence, and ‘Busan’, the hometown. As former Minister Cho moved to Gwanak-gu last year, there were observations that he might have relaxed in an area where the Democratic Party was strong, and Busan is a ‘rugged terrain’ from the opposition party’s point of view, and has a symbolism as a hometown. In fact, former Minister Cho was invited to run for Busan in the political world ahead of the 21st general election.

In the event of an independent run, it is bound to be a thunderbolt as the votes of the opposition parties are dispersed for the Democratic Party of the constituency. If you run for the Democratic Party, another conflict may arise in the process of traffic control within the party.

Among lawmakers in the metropolitan area, there is also an opinion that if former Minister Cho runs for the metropolitan area, the election board itself can be shaken. A first-time lawmaker from the metropolitan area was concerned that “the election itself can have a negative impact as elections in the metropolitan area can be divided at the 5% level.”

Former President Moon’s side is reluctant to say whether he met with former Minister Cho and shared his opinions on running for the general election. A lawmaker from the Blue House said, “Even if former President Moon recommended that he run, or if former Minister Cho showed an intention to run, he would not have stopped it.”

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